Last update on March 9, 2021

** Based on the data available as of March 7, 2021. Click to enlarge each image.

Replications files are available here.

Link to other Chiba pages:

chiba_20210126.html chiba_20210202.html chiba_20210216.html chiba_20210225.html chiba_20210302.html
chiba_20210316.html chiba_20210323.html chiba_20210330.html chiba_20210406.html chiba_20210413.html
chiba_20210420.html chiba_20210427.html chiba_20210504.html chiba_latest.html

1. Scenarios with immediate recovery of economic activity

(A) Baseline scenario

Chiba_gradual_Y

Source: Authors’ calculation.
Note: See Fujii and Nakata (2021) for a detailed discussion of the scenario.

(B) Alternative scenario

Chiba_gradual_Y

Source: Authors’ calculation.
Note: In this scenario, the effective reproduction number is assumed to be 1.3 times higher than the baseline scenario from March 22 to April 11.

2. Scenarios with gradual recovery of economic activity

(A) Baseline scenario

Chiba_gradual_Y

Source: Authors’ calculation.

(B) Alternative scenario

Chiba_gradual_Y

Source: Authors’ calculation.