Last update on October 12, 2021
** Based on the data available as of October 10, 2021. Click to enlarge each image.
Replications files are available here.
1. Forecast Errors
i. One-week horizon
| “Conditional” forecast from last week |
Actual |
“Conditional” forecast error |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| New Cases | 14,280 | 5,767 | 8,513 |
| New Deaths | 112 | 205 | -93 |
| New ICUs | 1,454 | 762 | 692 |
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Note: Our model provides projections of Covid-19 conditional on paths of output but does not provide the projection of output. Thus, we compare the actual Covid-19 outcomes with the projection of them if the model had known the realized path of output.
2. Real-time Evaluation of the Model’s Forecasting Performance
i. One-week horizon
 |
Source: Authors’ calculation.
Note: The red lines—“Forecast”—are what the model would have predicted given the data available up to that point.