Last update on August 24, 2021

** Based on the data available as of August 22, 2021. Click to enlarge each image.

Replications files are available here.

1. Forecast Errors

i. One-week horizon

from last week


forecast error
New Cases 90,805 157,422 -66,617
New Deaths 151 226 -75
New ICUs 2,504 2,591 -87

Source: Authors’ calculation.
Note: Our model provides projections of Covid-19 conditional on paths of output but does not provide the projection of output. Thus, we compare the actual Covid-19 outcomes with the projection of them if the model had known the realized path of output.

2. Real-time Evaluation of the Model’s Forecasting Performance

i. One-week horizon


Source: Authors’ calculation.
Note: The red lines—“Forecast”—are what the model would have predicted given the data available up to that point.