Last update on June 29, 2021

** Based on the data available as of June 27, 2021. Click to enlarge each image.

Replications files are available here.

1. Forecast Errors

i. One-week horizon

  “Conditional”
forecast
from last week


Actual

“Conditional”
forecast error
New Cases 12,434 10,339 2,095
New Deaths 215 249 -34
New ICUs 974 942 32

Source: Authors’ calculation.
Note: Our model provides projections of Covid-19 conditional on paths of output but does not provide the projection of output. Thus, we compare the actual Covid-19 outcomes with the projection of them if the model had known the realized path of output.

2. Real-time Evaluation of the Model’s Forecasting Performance

i. One-week horizon

ForecaseErrors

Source: Authors’ calculation.
Note: The red lines—“Forecast”—are what the model would have predicted given the data available up to that point.