Last update on February 25, 2021

** Based on the data available as of February 21, 2021. Click to enlarge each image.

Replications files are available here.

For figures before the correction, [click here]

Link to other Osaka pages:

osaka_20210126.html osaka_20210202.html osaka_20210209.html osaka_20210216.html osaka_20210302.html
osaka_20210309.html osaka_20210316.html osaka_20210323.html osaka_20210330.html osaka_20210406.html
osaka_20210413.html osaka_20210420.html osaka_20210427.html osaka_20210504.html osaka_20210511.html
osaka_20210518.html osaka_20210601.html osaka_20210608.html osaka_latest.html

1. Scenarios with immediate recovery of economic activity

(A) Baseline scenario

Osaka_gradual_Y

Source: Authors’ calculation.
Note: See Fujii and Nakata (2021) for a detailed discussion of the scenario.

(B) Alternative scenario

Osaka_gradual_Y

Source: Authors’ calculation.
Note: In this scenario, the effective reproduction number is assumed to be 1.3 times higher than the baseline scenario from March 22 to April 11.

2. Scenarios with gradual recovery of economic activity

(A) Baseline scenario

Osaka_gradual_Y

Source: Authors’ calculation.

(B) Alternative scenario

Osaka_gradual_Y

Source: Authors’ calculation.

3. Scenarios under various assumptions for the pace of vaccination

Osaka_gradual_Y

Source: Authors’ calculation.