最終アップデート：2021年2月23日
** 2月21日までのデータに基づく分析です。画像はクリックすると拡大します。
図表の作成に用いたコードやデータファイルはここからダウンロードできます。
修正後の図表は[ここをクリック]
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
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<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
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<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
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<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
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<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
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<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
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<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
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<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
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<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
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<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
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<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<tr>
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210126.html">osaka_20210126.html</a></td>
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210202.html">osaka_20210202.html</a></td>
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<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210209.html">osaka_20210209.html</a></td>
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<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210216.html">osaka_20210216.html</a></td>
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<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
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<td><a href="osaka_20210225.html">osaka_20210225.html</a></td>
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</tr>
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<tr>
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<td><a href="osaka_20210302.html">osaka_20210302.html</a></td>
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<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
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<td><a href="osaka_20210309.html">osaka_20210309.html</a></td>
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<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210316.html">osaka_20210316.html</a></td>
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210323.html">osaka_20210323.html</a></td>
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
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<td><a href="osaka_20210330.html">osaka_20210330.html</a></td>
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</tr>
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<tr>
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<td><a href="osaka_20210406.html">osaka_20210406.html</a></td>
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<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
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<td><a href="osaka_20210413.html">osaka_20210413.html</a></td>
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210420.html">osaka_20210420.html</a></td>
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210427.html">osaka_20210427.html</a></td>
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210504.html">osaka_20210504.html</a></td>
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
</tr>
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<tr>
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210511.html">osaka_20210511.html</a></td>
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210518.html">osaka_20210518.html</a></td>
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210601.html">osaka_20210601.html</a></td>
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_20210608.html">osaka_20210608.html</a></td>
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
<!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
<td><a href="osaka_latest.html">osaka_latest.html</a></td>
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</tr>
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
<!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
</table> –>
1. 大阪での緊急事態宣言解除基準分析
(A) 基本シナリオ
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この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。
出所: 著者達の計算による。
注: 左のパネルは、基本シナリオ下での新規感染者数の推移。黒の縦実線が現在時点、点線が緊急事態宣言解除が想定されている3月第1週。赤（青）い実線は緊急事態宣言解除基準が100（60）人だった場合、その他の細い点線は解除基準人数を変更した場合。右のパネルは、それぞれの解除基準人数によってどのように１年後の累計死亡者数と経済損失が影響を受けるかを示す。シナリオの詳細についてはFujii and Nakata (2021)を参照。
- この図をどのように理解すべきなのかは、この資料[感染症対策と経済活動の両立：コロナ危機終焉に向けて]と、この資料[緊急事態宣言解除基準分析の解説・モデル分析活用の心得]に詳細に記述してあります。
(B)「年度末気の緩み」シナリオ
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この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。
出所: 著者達の計算による。
注: このシナリオでは3月22日から4月11日の3週間、実効再生産数が基本シナリオの1.3倍になることを仮定しています。
2. 大阪ででの緊急事態宣言解除後の「経済促進ペース」分析
(A) 基本シナリオ
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この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。
出所: 著者達の計算による。
- この図をどのように理解すべきなのかは、このページ[ここをクリック]の解説を参考にして下さい。
(B)「年度末気の緩み」シナリオ
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この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。
出所: 著者達の計算による。
注: このシナリオでは3月22日から4月11日の3週間、実効再生産数が基本シナリオの1.3倍になることを仮定しています。
3. 大阪でのワクチン接種仮定の影響分析
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この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。
出所: 著者達の計算による。
- この図では、ワクチン接種の見通しがどのように大阪での(1)感染者数の推移、(2)死亡者数と経済損失の関係に影響を与えるのかを示しています。3月第1週に現在の緊急事態宣言解除を仮定しています。
- 3つのワクチン接種仮定の詳細は、この資料[ここをクリック]をご覧ください。