最終アップデート:2021年2月23日

** 2月21日までのデータに基づく分析です。画像はクリックすると拡大します。

図表の作成に用いたコードやデータファイルはここからダウンロードできます。

修正後の図表は[ここをクリック]

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

            <!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
            
                <tr>
                
            
            <!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
            <td><a href="fukuoka_20210216.html">fukuoka_20210216.html</a></td>
            
        

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

            <!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
            
            <!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
            <td><a href="fukuoka_20210225.html">fukuoka_20210225.html</a></td>
            
        

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

            <!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
            
            <!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
            <td><a href="fukuoka_20210302.html">fukuoka_20210302.html</a></td>
            
        

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

            <!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
            
            <!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
            <td><a href="fukuoka_20210309.html">fukuoka_20210309.html</a></td>
            
        

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

            <!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
            
            <!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
            <td><a href="fukuoka_20210316.html">fukuoka_20210316.html</a></td>
            
        

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->
        
            </tr>

            <!-- make a new row and set counter = 0 -->
            
                <tr>
                
            
            <!-- make a new cell with a link to the page and increase the number of counter -->
            <td><a href="fukuoka_latest.html">fukuoka_latest.html</a></td>
            
        

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

        <!-- if there are 5 cells in the row, close the row -->

    <td> </td>

    <td> </td>

    <td> </td>

    <td> </td>

</tr>

</table> –>

1. 福岡での緊急事態宣言解除基準分析

(A) 基本シナリオ

Fukuoka_gradual_Y

この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。

出所: 著者達の計算による。
注: 左のパネルは、基本シナリオ下での新規感染者数の推移。黒の縦実線が現在時点、点線が緊急事態宣言解除が想定されている3月第1週。赤(青)い実線は緊急事態宣言解除基準が60(40)人だった場合、その他の細い点線は解除基準人数を変更した場合。右のパネルは、それぞれの解除基準人数によってどのように1年後の累計死亡者数と経済損失が影響を受けるかを示す。シナリオの詳細についてはFujii and Nakata (2021)を参照。

(B)「年度末気の緩み」シナリオ

Fukuoka_gradual_Y

この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。

出所: 著者達の計算による。
注: このシナリオでは3月22日から4月11日の3週間、実効再生産数が基本シナリオの1.3倍になることを仮定しています。

2. 福岡での緊急事態宣言解除後の「経済促進ペース」分析

(A) 基本シナリオ

Fukuoka_gradual_Y

この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。

出所: 著者達の計算による。

  • この図をどのように理解すべきなのかは、このページ[ここをクリック]の解説を参考にして下さい。

(B)「年度末気の緩み」シナリオ

Fukuoka_gradual_Y

この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。

出所: 著者達の計算による。
注: このシナリオでは3月22日から4月11日の3週間、実効再生産数が基本シナリオの1.3倍になることを仮定しています。

3. 福岡でのワクチン接種仮定の影響分析

Fukuoka_gradual_Y

この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。

出所: 著者達の計算による。

  • この図では、ワクチン接種の見通しがどのように福岡での(1)感染者数の推移、(2)死亡者数と経済損失の関係に影響を与えるのかを示しています。3月第1週に現在の緊急事態宣言解除を仮定しています。
  • 3つのワクチン接種仮定の詳細は、この資料[ここをクリック]をご覧ください。