最終アップデート：2021年2月23日
** 2月21日までのデータに基づく分析です。画像はクリックすると拡大します。
図表の作成に用いたコードやデータファイルはここからダウンロードできます。
修正後の図表は[ここをクリック]
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<tr>
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<td><a href="fukuoka_20210216.html">fukuoka_20210216.html</a></td>
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<td><a href="fukuoka_20210225.html">fukuoka_20210225.html</a></td>
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<td><a href="fukuoka_20210302.html">fukuoka_20210302.html</a></td>
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<td><a href="fukuoka_20210309.html">fukuoka_20210309.html</a></td>
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<td><a href="fukuoka_20210316.html">fukuoka_20210316.html</a></td>
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</tr>
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<tr>
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<td><a href="fukuoka_latest.html">fukuoka_latest.html</a></td>
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<td> </td>
<td> </td>
<td> </td>
<td> </td>
</tr>
</table> –>
1. 福岡での緊急事態宣言解除基準分析
(A) 基本シナリオ
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この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。
出所: 著者達の計算による。
注: 左のパネルは、基本シナリオ下での新規感染者数の推移。黒の縦実線が現在時点、点線が緊急事態宣言解除が想定されている3月第1週。赤（青）い実線は緊急事態宣言解除基準が60（40）人だった場合、その他の細い点線は解除基準人数を変更した場合。右のパネルは、それぞれの解除基準人数によってどのように１年後の累計死亡者数と経済損失が影響を受けるかを示す。シナリオの詳細についてはFujii and Nakata (2021)を参照。
- この図をどのように理解すべきなのかは、この資料[感染症対策と経済活動の両立：コロナ危機終焉に向けて]と、この資料[緊急事態宣言解除基準分析の解説・モデル分析活用の心得]に詳細に記述してあります。
(B)「年度末気の緩み」シナリオ
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この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。
出所: 著者達の計算による。
注: このシナリオでは3月22日から4月11日の3週間、実効再生産数が基本シナリオの1.3倍になることを仮定しています。
2. 福岡での緊急事態宣言解除後の「経済促進ペース」分析
(A) 基本シナリオ
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この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。
出所: 著者達の計算による。
- この図をどのように理解すべきなのかは、このページ[ここをクリック]の解説を参考にして下さい。
(B)「年度末気の緩み」シナリオ
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この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。
出所: 著者達の計算による。
注: このシナリオでは3月22日から4月11日の3週間、実効再生産数が基本シナリオの1.3倍になることを仮定しています。
3. 福岡でのワクチン接種仮定の影響分析
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この図表のバックデータはここからダウンロードしてください。
出所: 著者達の計算による。
- この図では、ワクチン接種の見通しがどのように福岡での(1)感染者数の推移、(2)死亡者数と経済損失の関係に影響を与えるのかを示しています。3月第1週に現在の緊急事態宣言解除を仮定しています。
- 3つのワクチン接種仮定の詳細は、この資料[ここをクリック]をご覧ください。